Prediction markets gained significant attention during the recent U.S. presidential election, proving more accurate than many traditional opinion polls. With the post-election rally in cryptocurrencies, one big question is on everyone’s mind: How high can Bitcoin go?
Crypto-based platforms like Polymarket allow users to bet on Bitcoin’s future price, and the odds are reflecting some interesting possibilities. With Bitcoin trading around $91,000, Polymarket contracts give a 72% chance of reaching $95,000 in November, followed by a 23% likelihood for $105,000, and 14% for $110,000. Another contract that bets on Bitcoin staying above $90,000 by November 22 shows a 60% chance, while hitting $100,000 in November has lower odds at 42%.
On another prediction platform, Kalshi, users are betting on Bitcoin’s future price targets in the long term. A contract predicting Bitcoin will hit $125,000 by 2026 stands at 52% odds, while $150,000 by that time is at 44%.
For those who prefer Wall Street forecasts over betting markets, Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors offers a bullish outlook. Known for his accurate stock market predictions in 2023, Lee forecasted in March that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by year-end. While reaching that milestone this year may be a stretch with just weeks left, he still believes that “six figures” is possible by December, with further gains likely in 2025 and 2026. According to Lee, factors like Bitcoin’s post-halving phase and a lighter regulatory burden could lead to substantial growth.
Bitcoin’s price has already surged 32% in November and more than doubled in 2023. To reach $100,000, it would need another 10% push. Yet, recent market trends indicate a potential cooldown, with the stock market experiencing a dip and some of the “Trump trade” assets, like Tesla, Treasury yields, and the dollar, continuing to climb.
Quinn Thompson, founder of the crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, remains optimistic. He recently shared with Fortune his belief that Bitcoin is on track to hit $100,000 soon: “I feel good that we hit it by year-end. Very possible by end of month, but we’ll see.”
Whether you trust prediction markets, analysts, or hedge fund managers, one thing is clear—Bitcoin’s journey to $100,000 is captivating both crypto enthusiasts and traditional investors alike. The coming months will reveal if this milestone is truly within reach.
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