Bitcoin Could Reach $125K if Trump Wins, $75K if Harris Prevails: Standard Chartered

Trump and Harris with Bitcoin in the back. Could hit $125k or $75k.

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is expected to achieve new all-time highs by the end of this year, according to a report by investment bank Standard Chartered. Released on Thursday, the report highlighted that Bitcoin’s upward trajectory is likely to continue, no matter who wins the U.S. presidential election in November. This forecast comes as the bank resumes its coverage of the cryptocurrency sector, offering insights into how the upcoming political landscape might impact digital assets.

Election Impact on Bitcoin: Less Significant Than Expected

The outcome of the U.S. presidential election has long been viewed as a significant factor for the broader financial markets, especially for digital assets like Bitcoin. However, Standard Chartered suggests that the election’s impact on Bitcoin may not be as substantial as the markets believe. The report noted that while the results will have an influence, they matter less than when Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate back in 2020.

Geoff Kendrick, the global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, elaborated on this point, stating that Bitcoin is poised to break through to new highs regardless of the election results. According to the report, Bitcoin could skyrocket to approximately $125,000 if Donald Trump wins, or hover around $75,000 if Kamala Harris emerges victorious. This bullish outlook reflects the growing confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to perform independently of short-term political shifts.

Key Drivers of Bitcoin’s Growth

While the election remains a critical event, Standard Chartered sees a range of factors that will support Bitcoin’s long-term price increase. One of the most influential drivers is the potential relaxation of regulations surrounding digital assets. In particular, the bank points to the expected repeal of SAB 121, a regulation that imposes strict accounting rules on banks’ cryptocurrency holdings. This rule has long been considered a barrier to broader institutional involvement in the digital asset space.

Kendrick emphasized that this regulatory progress is set to continue into 2025, regardless of who occupies the White House. However, he noted that the speed of progress might vary depending on the administration. A Harris presidency could slow down efforts to ease regulations, while a Trump presidency would likely expedite the process. This difference in pace, however, is not expected to derail Bitcoin’s growth entirely, but merely extend the timeline for certain regulatory developments.

The Role of U.S. Treasury Yields and Market Sentiment

Another factor driving Bitcoin’s potential rise is the re-steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. The report suggests that the changes in Treasury yields are contributing to a favorable environment for Bitcoin, as investors seek out alternative assets to hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.

The steepening yield curve is generally seen as a sign of economic optimism and recovery, which bodes well for assets that thrive in an inflationary environment—like Bitcoin. This, combined with Bitcoin’s unique position as a decentralized and deflationary asset, could result in even more positive momentum for the cryptocurrency, particularly in the latter half of the year.

Market Reaction to Election Results

Although Bitcoin is likely to reach new highs regardless of the election outcome, the report highlights potential short-term market reactions. If Kamala Harris wins, the bank expects Bitcoin to experience an initial sell-off. This would likely be driven by uncertainty around how her administration might approach cryptocurrency regulation, especially given that regulatory progress would slow under her leadership.

However, Kendrick predicts that any dip following a Harris victory would be short-lived. He believes that investors will eventually recognize that while regulatory change might be delayed, it is still forthcoming. Furthermore, as other market catalysts take over, any sell-off would likely be seen as a buying opportunity by long-term investors. Conversely, if Trump wins, the regulatory path could be cleared more quickly, allowing Bitcoin to climb even higher and faster.

A Bullish Future for Bitcoin

Standard Chartered’s report offers a broadly optimistic view for Bitcoin. Despite the political and regulatory challenges that may arise, the bank remains confident that the cryptocurrency will continue its upward trend. The key takeaway is that Bitcoin’s future looks bright, with several market and regulatory factors contributing to its potential price increase.

As the world becomes increasingly comfortable with digital assets and regulations begin to relax, Bitcoin’s role in the global financial system is likely to grow. Whether through institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, or broader macroeconomic trends, the stage appears set for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs, regardless of the political landscape in the United States.

Final Word: Bitcoin Poised for Growth

In summary, Standard Chartered’s report suggests that Bitcoin is on track to hit new highs by the end of the year, with its price potentially reaching $125,000 if Trump wins or $75,000 if Harris secures the presidency. Although the U.S. election will impact market sentiment, other factors such as regulatory progress and changes in the U.S. Treasury yield curve are expected to play a larger role in driving Bitcoin’s future growth. Whether you’re an investor or simply observing the crypto market, all signs point to a strong finish for Bitcoin in 2024.

Read about Bitcoin Price for 2025

Read about Crypto and the US Election


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